Preliminary draft Authoritarian elections and leadership succession , 1975 - 2000

Authoritarian elections and leadership succession, 1975-2000 Why do a substantial number of non-democratic regimes hold elections? In this paper, I exposit a model in which authoritarian rulers agree to positive levels of electoral risk primarily to reduce the threat of their violent removal from office via a coup d’etat or revolution, or to lower the cost of managing that risk through secret police, press restrictions and the like. Using an extensive database on the world’s leaders and how they exited from office, I provide evidence that elections do help authoritarian regimes to regulate succession to their top posts. Specifically, both regular and irregular exits vary systematically across the electoral cycle, with regular exits being more likely in election years and irregular exits being less likely in and near election years.